Capital decision exposure

Make the exposure visible while authority remains human.

Model the financial burden around overrun and delay using your own assumptions. Axis One does not convert the result into a promised saving or automatic capital action.

Open the full exposure model Frame the decision

Illustrative exposure modelSee the parts before the total

Known overrun exposure£7.50M

Delay carrying cost£1.00M

Identified execution exposure£8.50MBased only on the assumptions entered

Each 1% of identified exposure£85,000

Inputs calculate in your browser and are not submitted or stored.

Capital under execution

Capital remains exposed throughout execution.

The investment decision is only the beginning. Value can continue to erode after approval when milestones, evidence, ownership, risk and capital-release decisions are managed across disconnected processes.

Teams spend time reconciling information instead of acting on it. Approvals slow down. Risks remain open without clear ownership. Contingency is consumed without a complete view of execution. Capital decisions can move forward before the evidence of delivery is sufficiently current.

Capital execution gap

What is disconnected capital execution?

Disconnected capital execution is the gap between capital approval and verified delivery.

It occurs when the people making decisions, the teams executing the work and the evidence of progress do not operate through the same governed system.

Fragmented evidence

Progress information is spread across documents, meetings, emails and disconnected systems.

Delayed decisions

Decision-makers do not receive complete, current and decision-ready information at the right moment.

Unverified capital release

Funding, approvals or commitments move forward without a clear connection to verified execution.

The pattern is documented across the industry

Research from McKinsey, BCG, Accenture, PwC, Deloitte and EY examines different aspects of the same capital-performance problem: fragmented information, delayed decisions, weak governance, insufficient evidence and value lost during execution.

External research provides context on capital-project underperformance. It does not determine the result of your calculation.

From external context to organisation-specific exposure

External evidence provides context.
Your inputs determine the estimate.

Benchmarks cannot tell you what disconnected execution may be costing your organisation. Your capital exposure depends on your portfolio, overruns, delays and financial assumptions.

Use your own figures below to estimate:

Value exposed to cost overruns
Carrying cost of delayed capital
What each 1% reduction in identified exposure could represent

No external benchmark is applied automatically.

Calculated in your browser. Your financial inputs are not submitted or stored.

Capital decision exposure calculator

Where is capital value currently exposed?

Enter your portfolio figures to estimate the value exposed to overruns and delay. Then test transparent reduction scenarios without treating them as predicted Axis One outcomes.

Currency Display only, no FX conversion

ExampleExample figures are loaded. Change any value to create your estimate.

01Define the capital exposureUse one programme or one consistent portfolio period.

Capital under executionExample valueUse one programme or one consistent portfolio period.

Typical cost overrunExample value

Overrun percentageUse a current forecast or historical average. Valid range: 0% to 500%.

02Add delay exposureMake the affected capital and time period explicit.

Capital affected by delayExample valueEstimate the portion of the capital above that is currently affected.Average delayExample valueUse the average delay across the affected projects.

Annual capital carrying rateEditable assumptionUse your approved financing rate, WACC or another appropriate carrying rate. The preloaded 8% is an editable example, not an industry benchmark.Include delay carrying cost in the combined exposureTurn this off when financing or delay-related costs are already included in the cost-overrun figure.

03Refine your estimateOptional direct costs and governance capacity

Known rework, claims or dispute costInclude only when this is a distinct amount from the same period.

Known delayed operating valueInclude only when this is a distinct, supportable amount from the same period.

Decision-governance capacityCapacity value, not automatic cash savings. Excluded unless you explicitly include it.

Include each optional category only when it is a distinct amount from the same period and is not already included elsewhere.

Capital exposure summary

Review the components before the total

Example

£50,000,000 of capital is affected by delay

Cost-overrun exposure Calculated£10,000,000

Delay carrying cost Included£1,000,000

Estimated identified exposure Calculated£11.0m£11,000,000 using the categories included above

Each 1% reduction in identified exposure represents£110,000One percent of the identified exposure, not a predicted Axis One result.

Model a reduction scenarioCustom%

Reduction in identified exposure 1% to 25%

£1.1mIllustrative exposure reduction at a 10% scenario

1%£110,000

5%£550,000

10%£1,100,000

15%£1,650,000

This scenario applies your selected reduction percentage to the exposure identified from your inputs. It is not a guarantee, accounting valuation or predicted Axis One result.

Estimate basis

CapitalExample value

OverrunExample value

DelayExample value

Carrying rateEditable assumption

ResultsCalculated

See the calculation and safeguards

01Cost-overrun exposure

Percentage mode: capital under execution × cost-overrun percentage. Known amount mode: the amount entered by the user.

02Delay carrying cost

Capital under execution × portion affected by delay × annual carrying rate × delay months / 12.

03Optional observed costs

Only direct, explicitly enabled values are added to the combined identified exposure.

04Illustrative exposure reduction

Identified execution exposure × the selected reduction percentage.

Prevent double counting

Use one consistent programme or portfolio period and include only non-overlapping amounts. Turn off delay carrying cost when financing or delay costs are already represented in the overrun figure.

Do not add the full capital principal, contingency reserves, full loss severity, generic overrun benchmarks, consulting percentages, financing already represented elsewhere, or duplicate rework or claims. Validate material assumptions with Finance and the programme team.

Independent industry evidence

Independent evidence provides context.
Your inputs determine the estimate.

Independent research consistently connects capital-project underperformance with fragmented information, delayed decisions, weak governance and inadequate evidence. The calculator above uses the visitor's own data. The research below provides context and is not automatically included in the estimate.

01What independent research identifies

McKinsey & CompanyResearch article · 2023

Fragmented systems weaken decision visibility

McKinsey describes project information as historically distributed across disparate and fragmented systems, with important links between project data and decision insight often lost.

Increasing transparency in megaproject executionView original source

DeloitteIndustry analysis · 2025

Weak governance delays decisions

Deloitte identifies inadequate project governance as including inconsistent or delayed decisions, siloed or inadequate information and difficulty measuring progress or success.

Managing power and utility risks in a new era of uncertaintyView original source

EYCapital-project review findings · 2025

Unsupported approvals increase cost exposure

EY reports control breakdowns in which certifications were made without sufficient supporting documentation or entitlement validation, creating unchecked approvals, cost exposure and delayed recovery.

How to optimize value and maximize potential in capital projectsView original source

Observed delivery outcomesPublished survey findings

Reported outcomes from independent industry surveys. These figures describe their research populations and are not inputs to the calculator.

AccentureGlobal survey · 2025

92%

of capital projects do not meet their commitments

Accenture reports that 92% of infrastructure and capital projects fail to deliver expected outcomes on time and on budget. Only 6% of organisations consistently meet or exceed their commitments.

Scope: Global survey of 700 infrastructure and capital-project leaders

Blueprint for successView original source

PwCRegional survey · 2025

81% / 79%

reported cost overruns / reported delays

PwC's 2025 Middle East Capital Projects and Infrastructure survey found that 81% of respondents had experienced cost overruns in the previous year and 79% had experienced delays.

Scope: More than 100 capital-project specialists across the region

Navigating uncertainty with a strategic roadmap for capex budgetingView original source

External practice benchmarksContext only · not used in the calculation

Published consulting-practice estimates provide external context only. They are not Axis One results, predictions or guaranteed savings.

BCGConsulting practice impact benchmark

10-15%

overall project capex savings

25% project schedule reduction
30% reduction in use of overall contingency
15% value-loss mitigation during execution

BCG publishes these as indicative Capital Projects Excellence impact figures. They are external practice benchmarks and are not applied automatically in this calculator.

Capital Projects ExcellenceView original source

McKinsey & CompanyExperience-based consulting estimate · 2022

15-30%

project-cost savings associated with capital-management best practices

McKinsey states that companies applying capital-management best practices across the project lifecycle can save 15-30% of project cost, while also noting that individual improvement levers can overlap.

How capital expenditure management can drive performanceView original source

Independent research context. The figures above come from different sectors, geographies, project types, methodologies and intervention scopes. They are not Axis One results, are not applied automatically in this calculator and do not represent guaranteed savings. Company names are used for source attribution only; no affiliation or endorsement is implied.

Review this estimate against a current capital programmeUse the estimate as a starting point for structuring the milestones, evidence, ownership and release controls behind a current capital decision.

Interpreting the exposure

The estimate informs judgement; it does not predict an outcome.

Use the model to identify assumptions that require investigation without implying a predetermined result.

An exposure estimate

The calculator organises the figures you enter. It is not a forecast of Axis One savings or programme performance.

A capital exposure discussion

The result identifies where capital, delay and execution assumptions require closer governance attention.

An input to human judgement

Axis One can make the basis clearer. It does not approve, transfer or autonomously allocate capital.

Move from scenario to decision context

Use the figures to frame one approaching capital decision.

Prepare a Decision Brief